Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Updated research

Spring break caught me a bit off guard and put me a few days behind in my research, nevertheless the show must go on.

As mentioned in my previous post I have been working with some experts in the field of global currencies and international trade, I am still compiling the research and data from that. I will have an updated thesis statement reflecting the new research shortly.

Two important pieces of information I have come across:

1. At the creation of the European Union/Euro, there was financial regulation put in place to maintain economic conformity across the various member states called the "Stability and Growth Pact." This was put in place to make sure public and government debt didn't exceed a certain percentage of the GDP of that country. Thus far a majority of the member states are in violation of this pact with debt to GDP ratios EXCEEDING what they have outlined as "dangerous" levels, this has been the case for the past 2-3 years in several countries. What was warned to be dangerous is regards to debt levels is now common place and the result is continuing bailouts of various countries and the risk of further problems is spreading. (Recent news of Portugal needing EU assistance is only strengthening my case)

Sources used for this:

Kesner-Škreb, Marina:
Institute of Public Finance, Zagreb: "STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT"

"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_and_Growth_Pact" this is a list of countries that are currently in violation of the SGP and a further explanation of the regulation with several cited sources.

2. According to the European Commission of Financial Affairs, "implementation of the
single currency was not only an economic decision; it was also a political commitment
by the EU Member States to work together.." There is big debate on whether the problems with the EU are more political or economical, my research so far has found both to be of equal importance and equally problematic. The political problems and tension between the small and large countries in the EU seem to be causing Issues on both sides, hence it appears the political problems are causing the economical problems and exactly vice versa.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/why/identity/index_en.htm

With some of the new information and research I've discovered my topic is getting more refined but there is a bit more to go. I am trying to focus on the goal of the Euro and what the outcome has been so far. From that I want to project said results onto a future path of the European Union and prove that one of two extreme changes will become necessary:

1. The European Union becomes a single country and combine all debt/assets/governments etc

2.Or The European Union must breaks apart.

I feel like I am on the right path so far but more research and more work to do yet.

2 comments:

Mark Jeffreys said...

Okay Jared, your particular either/or argument is a good tight thesis to try to argue. I like this turn; stick with it.

Scott Abbott said...

Jared, so the growth and stability pact -- just how, specifically, is it related to the Euro? I'm confident that you're on to something; but as you begin to lay it out, write it also for readers like me who don't know economics.

And in the long run, you'll want to replace the wikipedia source with a scholarly one -- if you're lucky, the wiki article will direct you to the source.